Prediction Market
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Current Polymarket Yes price: 5.5%. The True Probability Interval is 4.3% – 5.6%.
Polymarket Price
Yes
5.5%
No
94.5%
Volume
$6.5M
24h Volume
$493
Resolution date
January 1, 2027
Polymarket Price History
Historical Yes price
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.
Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.