Prediction Market
Human moon landing in 2026?
Current Polymarket Yes price: 0.8%. The True Probability Interval is 0.0% – 0.8%.
Polymarket Price
Yes
0.8%
No
99.3%
Volume
$2M
24h Volume
$32.2
Resolution date
January 1, 2027
Polymarket Price History
Historical Yes price
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.