Prediction Market
Human moon landing in 2026?
Current Polymarket Yes price: 1.3%. The True Probability Interval is 0.5% – 1.3%.
Polymarket Price
Yes
1.3%
No
98.8%
Volume
$2M
24h Volume
$35
Resolution date
January 1, 2027
Polymarket Price History
Historical Yes price
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.