Prediction Market
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Current Polymarket Yes price: 0.8%. The True Probability Interval is 0.5% – 0.8%.
Polymarket Price
Yes
0.8%
No
99.3%
Volume
$4.7M
24h Volume
$66.1K
Resolution date
October 1, 2026
Polymarket Price History
Historical Yes price
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.