Prediction Market
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Current Polymarket Yes price: 18.5%. The True Probability Interval is 17.9% – 18.6%.
Polymarket Price
Yes
18.5%
No
81.5%
Volume
$75.5M
24h Volume
$59K
Resolution date
January 1, 2027
Polymarket Price History
Historical Yes price
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.