Prediction Market
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
Current Polymarket Yes price: 2.7%. The True Probability Interval is 2.0% – 2.7%.
Polymarket Price
Yes
2.7%
No
97.3%
Volume
$1.5M
24h Volume
$1.6K
Resolution date
January 1, 2027
Polymarket Price History
Historical Yes price
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.