Prediction Market
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
Current Polymarket Yes price: 4.5%. The True Probability Interval is 3.8% – 4.5%.
Polymarket Price
Yes
4.5%
No
95.5%
Volume
$632.1K
24h Volume
$3.4K
Resolution date
January 1, 2027
Polymarket Price History
Historical Yes price
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.