Prediction Market
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Current Polymarket Yes price: 3.8%. The True Probability Interval is 2.6% – 3.8%.
Polymarket Price
Yes
3.8%
No
96.3%
Volume
$41M
24h Volume
$26.3K
Resolution date
December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price History
Historical Yes price
Resolution Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.