US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
Prediction Market

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

Current Polymarket Yes price: 4.3%. The True Probability Interval is 3.6% – 4.4%.

Polymarket Price
Yes
4.3%
No
95.7%
True Probability Interval
Lower Bound
3.6%
Upper Bound
4.4%
How is this calculated?
Volume
$649.2K
24h Volume
$5.2K
Resolution date
January 1, 2027

Polymarket Price History

Historical Yes price

0%25%50%75%100%9/27/202610/27/2026

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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