Plague pandemic in 2026?
Prediction Market

Plague pandemic in 2026?

Current Polymarket Yes price: 1.9%. The True Probability Interval is 1.2% – 2.0%.

Polymarket Price
Yes
1.9%
No
98.0%
True Probability Interval
Lower Bound
1.2%
Upper Bound
2.0%
How is this calculated?
Volume
$509.4K
24h Volume
$1
Resolution date
January 1, 2027

Polymarket Price History

Historical Yes price

0%25%50%75%100%10/5/202610/27/2026

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes plague, Yersinia pestis, pneumonic plague, or any plague outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the disease or outbreak as a "pandemic". A Public Health Emergency of International Concern alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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