
Prediction Market
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?
Current Polymarket Yes price: 5.0%. The True Probability Interval is 3.8% – 5.0%.
Polymarket Price
Yes
5.0%
No
95.0%
Volume
$938.8K
24h Volume
$1.2K
Resolution date
January 1, 2027
Polymarket Price History
Historical Yes price
Resolution Rules
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.